Round(s) of wintry weather bring snow, ice and rain to NL through mid-week
An area of low pressure is on its way through the Gulf of St. Lawrence tonight, and it's bringing messy weather to most of Newfoundland and Labrador. Here's what to expect over the next few days.
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Tonight into Tuesday Morning
Snow will spread across much of the province tonight. By midnight, most of Newfoundland — especially areas west of the Avalon — will already be seeing snowfall. By 3:00 AM, the Avalon is in it too, while the Burin Peninsula begins to see that snow flip to rain. Central, the West Coast, Northern Peninsula, and southeastern Labrador will continue seeing snow through the early morning hours.
The bulk of this clears out by 5:00–6:00 AM across most areas. The Avalon and Burin peninsulas will still see rain through the morning, wrapping up around 7:00–8:00 AM.
Snowfall totals for this round:
Most areas: a couple of centimetres — not a major event
West Coast (around Corner Brook): 10–20 cm overnight, with lesser amounts at lower elevations and more at higher terrain
South Coast / Burgeo Highway corridor: up to 30+ cm possible inland — a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Burgeo–Ramea area. Amounts will be closer to 5 cm along the coast.
Southeastern Labrador: 10–20 cm
Burin and Avalon: snow changes to rain, so accumulations will be limited to less than 5 cm.
Winds will gust to 70 km/h in Burgeo. Gust will be up to 80 km/h for the Avalon and Bonavista peninsulas overnight. These ease after 7:00–8:00 AM. A wind warning may be issued by Environment Canada.
The saving grace here: a southerly flow will bring in milder air overnight, so tonight won't be nearly as cold as this morning's brutal –14.4°C low in my backyard.
Tuesday
The weather improves but there's a catch. Temperatures will actually fall throughout the day — most of us will hit our highs early in the morning and then cool off as the afternoon progresses. Corner Brook goes from 0°C at 6:00 AM down to –3 or –4°C by midday. The Burin and Avalon peninsulas hold on a bit longer before the cold air arrives in the evening.
Labrador sees cold temperatures in the minus teens, with wind chills pushing into the –20s and –30s.
Wednesday into Thursday — The Bigger Concern
This is the one to watch. An area of low pressure will track slowly to the south of Newfoundland on Wednesday, and that sets the stage for a mixed-precipitation event that could have real impacts.
Here's how it looks by region:
Avalon Peninsula & Burin Peninsula / Connaigre area: Snow developing Wednesday morning (likely mid-morning on the Avalon, earlier to the west), changing to ice pellets and freezing rain in the afternoon, continuing into early Thursday morning before ending.
Bonavista Peninsula through Terra Nova National Park and west southwest: Primarily snow, with 10–20 cm widespread from Port aux Basques to the Bonavista Peninsula.
Grand Falls-Windsor, Gander, Corner Brook: Lighter snowfall, mainly flurries from this system.
The wild card for St. John's metro/Avalon North: A small shift in where this low tracks makes a big difference. If it runs warmer, the city will see closer to 10 cm before flipping to ice quickly. If it stays colder, we could be looking at closer to 20 cm before the changeover. The ice pellet and freezing rain change does appear likely based on the current track — but there are still details to iron out.
Ice accumulation is a real concern for the Burin Peninsula and southern Avalon, where 6–10+ mm of freezing rain is possible. That kind of ice buildup on trees and power lines can cause power outages, especially if there's any wind involved. Worth noting: light freezing rain is actually more effective at accumulating ice than heavy precipitation — so even a moderate event can cause problems.
Travel impacts: Expect potential school closures and travel disruptions from Wednesday through Thursday morning. Freezing rain is about the worst condition possible for air travel, so if you're flying through St. John's, keep a close eye on the forecast as it develops.
Looking Ahead
Once we're through Thursday morning, things quiet down considerably heading into the weekend. The next chance of significant weather currently looks to be next Monday.
For western and northern Newfoundland and Labrador, the coldest air comes early in the week, with a gradual moderation as we head toward the weekend.
Not the simplest forecast, but that's where things stand.
Make sure you have the Sheerr Weather app (search Sheerr Weather in the Apple App Store or Google Play Store) and follow along on Facebook and YouTube for updates.
The next forecast drops bright and early Tuesday morning.
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