Record Warmth Gives Way To Late-Season Winter Storm
St. John’s climbed to 19°C this afternoon, breaking the previous record of 16.1°C set back in 1954. That warmth was felt across much of Newfoundland and Labrador — but it’s short-lived.
A prolonged winter storm arrives tomorrow and will impact parts of the province right through Thursday.
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The biggest concern with this system isn’t the snow — it’s the potential for significant icing. As colder air moves in behind a front overnight, temperatures fall back toward where they should be for this time of year. By tomorrow night and especially Wednesday, conditions begin to line up for freezing rain across the Avalon Peninsula, the Bonavista Peninsula, and parts of the northeast coast.
It’s a bit hard to wrap your head around, given the warmth today, but freezing rain could be falling in eastern Newfoundland by this time tomorrow.
There is growing confidence that some areas could see between 10 and 20 millimetres of ice accretion. If that happens, we’re talking about the kind of setup that can lead to tree damage and power outages. As the ice builds on branches and power lines, the added weight becomes a real issue. Wednesday into Wednesday night is the window where those impacts are most likely.
Through the day Tuesday, most of what falls on the Avalon will be rain or very light precipitation. But as the wind turns more northerly Tuesday night, colder air deepens and freezing rain becomes more widespread and more impactful.
By Wednesday, heavier precipitation moves in, and much of it is likely to fall as freezing rain across eastern areas. Just to the west, there will be a transition zone where ice pellets mix in, and beyond that, it changes over to snow. Exactly where those lines set up will matter a lot, because that’s going to determine who sees the worst of the ice versus the heaviest snow.
Speaking of snow, areas from central Newfoundland through the Green Bay and White Bay regions, extending into the northern Peninsula and southeastern Labrador, are in line for significant totals. As the system evolves Wednesday into Thursday, those areas could see widespread amounts in the 20 to 30 centimetre range, with locally higher totals possible.
One thing working slightly in our favour is the time of year. During the day, April sun can help keep road surfaces mainly wet in areas seeing freezing rain. But that benefit disappears at night, and that’s when conditions can turn much more hazardous. Meanwhile, areas under heavier snow will likely see deteriorating travel conditions fairly quickly on Wednesday.
This is also not a quick-hit system. The low responsible for this will linger into Thursday before things begin to ease, but even then, another system looks poised to move in on its heels by Friday. The broader pattern isn’t changing much either, with a blocking high over Greenland keeping us locked into an onshore, unsettled flow.
That means more cloud, more precipitation chances, and temperatures that stay on the cool side overall.
There is at least one upside. That same pattern is favourable for pushing icebergs closer to the coastline, so while the weather may not feel very spring-like, it could help set the stage for iceberg season along parts of Newfoundland and Labrador.
If you don’t already have it, you can download the Sheerr Weather app from the App Store or Google Play to stay up to date. I’ll have your next update posted tomorrow morning.
The next forecast drops bright and early Tuesday morning.
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