RDF Continues Into Saturday, Along With More Thunderstorm Chances...
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Rain, and especially drizzle and fog, are going to be the rule across Newfoundland tonight rather than the exception. That's the headline, and unfortunately it carries over into Saturday too — with one added wrinkle: a better chance of showers and thundershowers over the eastern half of the island. Here's the full rundown, including an early look at Regatta Day.
Tonight: Cloud, drizzle, and thickening fog
Through the overnight, southeastern Labrador and most of Newfoundland stay locked in under the cloud deck, and any east or northeast-facing shore is going to sit in the fog. The closer you are to that coast, the thicker it gets. Labrador overnight is on the chill side — and I don't mean temperature-wise. I mean quiet. Not a whole lot on the go. Very chill, if you will.
Saturday: Showers and storms in the east, but where?
Tomorrow in the Big Land, temperatures climb into the 20s for a lot of areas — except in the south, where an onshore wind sets up. That means cloud, drizzle, and yes, areas of fog.
On the island, that murky trend continues as an area of low pressure pulls out of the Maritimes and tracks slowly toward southern Newfoundland. As it does, showers and storms develop over southeastern parts of Newfoundland.
Here's the honest version: I can tell you with confidence that we're going to see showers and thundershowers. What I can't tell you with any exact certainty is where they'll set up. Between roughly noon and 6 PM tomorrow, they're going to be around. One model run puts them by 6 PM over the Clarenville area and the southern Bonavista Peninsula — but they could just as easily be a little further east or a little further west.
If you've got outdoor plans
I've gotten a lot of questions this week about outdoor weddings and similar plans, so let me be direct about it.
There is a real chance of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, and if we do see them, the rain is going to be heavy — possibly heavy for longer than you'd like. If it's something you can move inside, that's where I'd hedge.
If you'd rather keep it outside, you can chance it. We may not see the storms at all in your particular spot. But I can guarantee they'll be around somewhere. It's purely a question of where.
Saturday night into Sunday: Better, but "better" is relative
Saturday evening, all that activity begins to lift north, and as the low passes and moves east it sets the stage for a better Sunday.
But better is relative, right? Better means maybe no rain showers and thunderstorms. It does not mean great. Sunday on the island brings northerly winds, plenty of cloud cover except right along the south-facing shores, and cool temperatures — highs in the upper teens to low 20s with very little in the way of sunshine, at least as it looks right now.
In Labrador, Sunday goes the other direction: showers and storms increasing in coverage along and ahead of an area of low pressure, and a little cooler overall. More unsettled in the Big Land, more settled but still cool on the island.
Early next week: Another low
There is the potential for more rain arriving Monday into Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops and moves through Labrador. That same system looks like it drives rain over parts of Newfoundland Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As it stands right now, that low clears out for Wednesday. But that's not the end of the discussion — because Wednesday is Regatta Day.
Regatta Day: Keep a close eye on this one
This forecast shows clearing skies and comfortable temperatures for Wednesday. It also shows a fairly windy day. We're talking wind speeds easily 40 to 50 km/h out of the west or southwest, with higher gusts possible… as of today (this could change).
With respect to rowing on Quidi Vidi Lake, that's bordering on what would be considered safe. I've got about five years of experience rowing on the pond myself, so I can speak to this at least a little bit. If this forecast holds, the Regatta may have a tough time going ahead Wednesday. The Regatta Committee makes its call early Wednesday morning, so we'll know then — but if you're someone who likes to play Regatta Roulette, keep a very close eye on the forecast!
The next forecast update will be tomorrow morning! Check back for updates!
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