Rain Returns Tonight, Continues Through Friday
The reason we're in for heavy rain is a fairly extensive weather system swinging through. We've got an area of low pressure with a cold front, a secondary low developing along that front, and a slow forward speed pulling a lot of moisture northward. Combine those three ingredients and you get the recipe for widespread, persistent rainfall — plus a brief shot of milder air ahead of the front, followed by a noticeable cool-down behind it. That cool-down is already showing up in Labrador, and it'll roll across the island through tomorrow and tomorrow night.
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The southwest coast is already getting it
The heaviest rain as of late this afternoon is located over southwest Newfoundland, specifically from Port aux Basques up through the Codroy Valley. That area is under a Rainfall Warning through Friday morning for up to 65 mm.
As of now, no other rainfall warnings are in effect along the coastline — but I think that could change. Forecast amounts for the Burin Peninsula, the Connaigre area, and the southern Avalon are not far off what's expected at Port aux Basques, so I'd watch for Environment Canada to issue more warnings tonight. If you have the Sheerr Weather app, you’ll get alerts as they’re issued!
Labrador: a warning for the southeast
In the big land, Red Bay to L'Anse au Clair are under a rainfall warning for up to 35 mm by Friday morning. Outside of southeastern Labrador, there isn't a lot of rain in the picture from this system, so I'm not expecting additional warnings there.
How much rain is on the way
Most of the action falls between tonight and Friday evening (early Saturday morning at the latest). The dividing line is almost the Bay d'Espoir Highway — east of there, it's a wet one.
Eastern half of Newfoundland and the south coast: widespread 25–50 mm
Burin Peninsula, Connaigre area, southern Avalon: upwards of 50 mm
Port aux Basques / Codroy Valley: up to 65 mm (warned)
Southeast Labrador (Rabbit, L'Anse au Clair): up to 35 mm (warned)
Most of Labrador outside the southeast: little impact
How it plays out, hour by hour
Here's how the future cast lays it out:
6 PM tonight: rain over western Newfoundland; some wet snow possible in parts of Labrador.
Midnight: wet snow continues over northern and western Labrador. Rain has filled in across roughly the middle third of Newfoundland and the western Avalon.
6 AM Friday: the rain redevelops in the east and doesn’t move much
Midday Friday: a band from Springdale down to just west of Burgeo and Ramea is in the rain, along with areas just west of the Avalon.
Friday evening: rain eases off. Friday night it winds down.
Saturday morning: quieter, generally sunny weekend underway.
Tonight and Friday at a glance
Tonight: mild once again on the island, with areas of fog in the south. Winds gusting 40 to 60 km/h from the south/southwest. In Labrador, turning colder — below freezing in the west by morning.
Friday: rain across much of Newfoundland, only clearing on the west coast late in the day. In Labrador, highs of 4 to 11°C with sunshine developing for many areas by the afternoon, except in the north and west.
The wind: a respite is coming
Winds in St. John's were sustained at 41 km/h as of 3:46 this afternoon. The silver lining is that they shouldn't get much higher than that. They'll remain a factor through Friday, but once we get into late Friday and Saturday they really slack off — and they stay low through the weekend. So finally, a respite from the rain and a respite from the wind. That's like a tongue twister — and it shouldn't be.
Looking ahead: the weekend, and the May 24
The seven-day for Newfoundland looks great this weekend. No major weather in play through the next week either, although there's a chance of rain and wind on Wednesday. After that we get to Thursday, Friday — and then May 2-4 long weekend. Keep an eye out for my first Sheerr Weather May 2-4 long weekend forecast — should be a fun one. Hopefully the weather holds and I'm not forecasting snow.
For Labrador, the south coast sees a little rain Monday through Wednesday after a decent weekend. The north is shaping up for a decent weekend too, then chances for showery rain and snow next week. Lab West is still going below freezing at night, but the overall pattern isn't bad heading into next week, and it's the same story for the Goose Bay area.
If you don't have my app yet, grab it in the Apple App Store or Google Play Store — just search Sheerr Weather. There's also a treasure trove of weather info on sheerrweather.ca.
Have a good Thursday evening. If you're catching this on YouTube, a subscribe wouldn't hurt — and I'll see you tomorrow morning bright and early.
The next forecast update will be posted bright and early Thursday morning!
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