Tuesday Evening’s Forecast: Will the wind speed cooperate for Regatta Day?

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Good Tuesday Evening!

We are seeing some showers across portions of western Newfoundland and the Great Northern Peninsula this afternoon, and those will become a bit more widespread overnight in that same area as an area of low pressure passes through Labrador and its attendent trough pushes into western Newfoundland. While rainfall amounts aren’t looking to be signficiant, a rough 5 to 10 mm does appear to be on the way overnight.

RDPS Model’s Rainfall Totals between early Tuesday and early Wednesday (July 30, 2025).

Besides the showers and rain expected over the areas mentioned above, the weather across much of NL looks to be fairly quiet overnight. There may be some isolated showers in Central Newfoundland and the coast of Labrador overnight as well. Some fog is also possile along southern-facing shores.

Temperatures will dip into the single digits and lower teens overnight in Labrador and middle to upper teens across the Island. It will also feel a bit muggy tonight as there is a good bit of moisture (humidity) in the air from dew points in the middle to upper teens.

WEDNESDAY — AKA REGATTA DAY — FORECAST

As a rower and as someone who has covered the Regatta for the last 12+ years, I can tell you the single biggest driver of whether the 207th running of the Royal St. John’s Regatta goes ahead, or not, tomorrow will be the wind speed. Temperatures and predicted rainfall almost have no impact on the decision to hold the Nation’s only weather-dependent holiday… it’s all about that wind! So what’s the wind forecast tomorrow, you ask?

As of Tuesday afternoon, the forecasts continue to indicate that wind speeds will be low enough, in my humble opinion, for the Regatta to proceed tomorrow. Assuming this holds, we should have a great day on the Lake. There is a slight chance of showers after 6 PM.

That being said, the direction of the wind is also crucial on the lake. A southwest wind is pretty much the worst direction there is for rowing , as it blows straight down the pond, toward Quidi Vidi Gut. The forecast for Wednesday currently indicates a south wind shifting to the southwest. If the wind is more southwest than south, especially early in the day, that may throw a bit of a wrench in the races going ahead. Unfortunately, it’s one of those things where we have to wait and see… but I have high hopes it’ll work out!

What about the rest of NL?

An area of low pressure is going to approach northern and western Labrador from eastern Quebec, and that will spark off a fair bit of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity over the Big Land. There will also be soe afternoon showers (and possible thunderstorms) over parts of eastern Newfoundland. These look to be primarily west of the Avalon, but I’ll keep an eye on the radar in the afternoon. Highs creep into the upeer teens and lower 20s across the Island and teens and 20s in Labrador.

Temperatures in Labrador West are expected to drop quickly in the afternoon as a cold front moves through, and will be near 10° by evening. That will set the stage for a chilly night, with lows in Labrador West Thursday morning near the 5° mark. A fall-like welcome to the end of July!

Thursday and Friday look fairly tranquil right now across the region, with no major weather-makers in play. Temperatures remain seasonable across the board.

An area of low pressure will pass east of the Avalon on Friday night into Saturday and may brush eastern areas with some rain, as it currently appears. While this may not significantly impact our weather, it could increase wave heights slightly, which may influence your decision to participate in the Recreational Food Fishery this coming weekend. I’ll have that forecast posted for you on Friday afternoon.

Have a great Tuesday night… and for those of you playing Regatta Roulette, good luck!

Eddie

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