Thursday Will Not Be As Warm OR Windy As Our Next Weather Maker Starts To Move In
It's a beautiful day across much of Newfoundland — sunshine and temperatures near 20°C, with the St. John's metro the warmest spot in the province as I write this. The only thing we could really ask for is a break from the wind, and unfortunately, that's not in the cards just yet.
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Why it's so windy: a tight pressure squeeze
A cold front, a warm front, and an area of low pressure are all parked off to our northwest, while an area of high pressure sits to our southeast. When two pressure systems crowd this close together, the air between them rushes hard to balance things out — and that's exactly what's happening over the island today. Gusts in St. John's have once again topped 80 km/h. These will ease a bit tonight and tomorrow… but it will be short lived.
The Cabot Strait is taking a beating
Those same winds are stacking up wave heights in the Cabot Strait approaching 3 metres. For anyone who hasn't crossed it, the Cabot Strait is the stretch of open water between southwest Newfoundland and Cape Breton — and it's the lifeline for Marine Atlantic, the ferry service that connects the island to the mainland.
The good news: wave heights are forecast to drop overnight, and last I checked, tonight's sailings are slated to go ahead. The not-so-good news: another round of high-ish winds is coming Thursday into Friday, which could put another damper on the schedule. Hopefully, it doesn't kick the seas back up too much.
A quick window for the iceberg watchers
If you've been waiting to get drone footage of the icebergs hanging out near the Avalon, tomorrow morning is your window before the wind picks back up.
A reminder of why this matters — Aerial Perspective ran a great test recently flying a drone out toward the iceberg near Pouch Cove. It took one minute to get out to the berg, and twelve minutes to fly back against the wind. That's a smart move by any drone pilot: always test your return time before you commit to the trip out, because batteries drain fast when you're punching into a headwind. Thanks to Aerial Perspective for sharing.
Tonight and Thursday
Tonight stays mild on the island — overnight lows of 7 to 11°C across Newfoundland. In Labrador, it's a split: near or below freezing in the west, above freezing in the southeast where rain and showers continue to push through. Expect some scattered showers across the island and patchy fog along the south coast and south-facing shores.
Thursday brings a noticeable shift. Winds turn more southeasterly instead of southerly/southwesterly, which knocks our temperatures back — 14°C in town versus the near 20 we hit today. The west coast gets a few showers through the day and more scattered showers late, with widespread showers filling in across western Newfoundland by the afternoon as that low pressure system cruises through. Parts of Labrador will see a mix of rain and wet snow around the low. The south coast hangs on to fog through much of the day.
The low is in no hurry to leave — and that sets us up for Friday.
Friday is a rain day
By Friday, the low to our south finally drags its cold front across the island, and we're looking at a straight-up rainy, breezy day for most of Newfoundland, with temperatures dropping once the rain wraps up in the evening.
Rainfall totals through Friday evening:
Labrador: 10–25 mm (some of the western total may fall as wet snow)
South and southwest coast: up to 50 mm
Most other areas of the island: 10–20 mm
This time of year, that kind of rain is never a bad thing — especially after a dry stretch this week, and with another dry stretch likely coming behind it.
Weekend looks good
Saturday, Sunday and Monday are all shaping up nicely — a bit cooler than today, but that's about where we should be for early May. The North Coast of the Big Land is currently sitting at a 0% chance of precipitation for Saturday. Showers return mid-week as the pattern shifts back to the damp, drizzly stuff in spots along the coast.
Get out and enjoy the sunshine this evening! ☀️
The next forecast update will be posted bright and early Thursday morning!
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