This Weekend’s Forecast Isn’t Lacking Snow or Forecast Challenges for NL
It’s been a snowy week. You don’t need me to tell you that — but I’m going to anyway.
Some areas are absolutely buried, and while I wish I could say we’re heading into a quiet weekend, that’s not the case. Snow is back in the forecast. The difference this time? It’s not as straightforward — especially for eastern Newfoundland.
What’s Certain
For southeastern Labrador, the Northern Peninsula, and parts of western Newfoundland, confidence is much higher.
Snow continues to back into Labrador and works its way south through the Northern Peninsula and West Coast tonight and Saturday. Many of these areas will see significant totals through Saturday and into early Sunday. Wind will also be a factor — and in some places, a major one.
So if you’re west of Grand Falls-Windsor, up the Northern Peninsula, or in southeastern Labrador — plan for more winter.
Central & Eastern: More Complicated
As we head into Saturday night and Sunday, the focus shifts east — and yes, there is more snow in the forecast for the Avalon.
Here’s the simple version:
Two separate weather features will be moving toward each other. These two features will connect, or “phase,” and in turn they’ll strengthen a low-pressure system just south of the Avalon Saturday night that will then slowly move north, east of the Avalon on Sunday. The question is, where and when exactly does this “phasing” occur?
If they link up sooner and closer to us, the Avalon and eastern Newfoundland will see snow from Saturday evening through much of Sunday, leading to another healthy snowfall (20 to 30 cm as it looks now). If they don’t connect until they’re farther offshore, the snow is lighter and doesn’t last as long — meaning much lower totals… think 5 to 10 cm. As of this afternoon, the computer model guidance doesn’t have a good handle on where this will happen. But keep in mind it’s one of these systems where small changes in speed and distance make a big difference in the weather on the Avalon.
Think of this last storm. Monday morning I wasn’t convinced we’d see 30 cm… then we had some small changes in track and strength, and some places saw more than double that amount. I'm not saying we are going to repeat that, but I am saying that’s why confidence is low. The setup supports the possibility of a decent snowfall Saturday night into Sunday… but it also suorts the possibility that this ends up being much less impressive.
One Thing That’s Not Uncertain: The Wind
It’s going to be windy.
Much of the island sees strong winds through Saturday, and into Sunday across central and eastern Newfoundland. If snow is falling at the same time, conditions could deteriorate quickly in exposed areas.
That combination — snow plus wind — is something to keep in mind, even if totals don’t end up overly impressive.
Early Next Week
After Sunday, we don’t exactly quiet down.
There’s another system showing up on Tuesday with snow for parts of the province, possibly mixing or changing in some areas. It’s too early to lock that in, but the pattern remains active.
I’ll continue updating through the weekend — maybe not at midweek pace — but I’ll be watching this closely.
Be sure to check the app for updates, and the video below walks through the timing, radar evolution, and the phasing setup in more detail.
Stay tuned.
I’ll have my next update posted tomorrow morning!
📱 Get the Sheerr Weather App in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.
🗺️ Check out the Map Room to see all the latest weather observations for the Province.
🎥 Check out the Provincial Highway Cams to see 👀 what’s going on around our highways and byways!
