Rain/Wind Arrive This Evening As Storm Moves In
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Friday’s rain is spreading east across Newfoundland this afternoon and evening, but for many areas the bigger weather story arrives Saturday as a rapidly strengthening area of low pressure brings a period of very strong winds to parts of the Island.
The rain has already reached western Newfoundland and will continue advancing east through the evening. By midnight, rain should be falling across the Avalon, while it continues over the Northern Peninsula, southeastern Labrador and the Lower North Shore of Quebec.
The low responsible for all of this will strengthen quickly overnight and Saturday as colder air moving south out of Labrador meets much warmer air to the south of Newfoundland. It should be near 992 mb around midday Saturday before deepening further as it moves northeast of the province during the afternoon.
That faster departure is actually one of the more encouraging changes in the forecast. Earlier guidance had the low hanging around longer, which would have brought the strongest winds closer to the Island. The highest gusts now look likely to remain offshore, but that still leaves a large part of Newfoundland dealing with winds of 70 to 100 km/h Saturday.
Wind warnings are in effect from the Northern Peninsula through parts of central and northeastern Newfoundland to Avalon North, where northwest gusts of 90 to 110 km/h are possible. St. John’s and the northeast Avalon remain under a special weather statement, with gusts near 90 km/h expected and the possibility that some exposed areas could get closer to 100 km/h.
When do the strongest winds arrive?
The first area I’m watching is the west coast early Saturday morning, particularly from north of Corner Brook through Rocky Harbour, Norris Point, Woody Point, Cow Head and the Shallow Bay area. Guidance is showing a fairly narrow corridor of stronger winds there, so a relatively small shift in the low’s track could make a big difference in exactly who sees the highest gusts. The Northern Peninsula will also turn very windy Saturday morning, with gusts around St. Anthony potentially approaching 100 km/h for several hours.
By the afternoon, the strongest winds shift toward Notre Dame Bay, the Bay of Exploits, Green Bay–White Bay, Bonavista Bay and eventually farther southeast. Current guidance has gusts around 90 km/h in Twillingate, the mid-80s around Fogo Island and Lumsden, the mid-90s around Bonavista and low 90s near Old Perlican. St. John’s could be gusting into the 80s during the afternoon, with the peak there likely later in the day. Winds should begin easing during Saturday evening, although northeastern and eastern Newfoundland will remain breezy into Sunday.
Rainfall will be much more localized
For most of Newfoundland, this will not be a major rainfall event. Many areas are looking at roughly 10 to 25 mm, with lower amounts in some locations.
The Northern Peninsula is the exception. The eastern side of the peninsula, including areas from Roddickton toward St. Anthony, could receive 50 to 70 mm as rain persists from Friday night through much of Saturday. A rainfall warning is in effect for that area.
So for much of central and eastern Newfoundland, Saturday is more of a wind story than a rain story.
A taste of winter in Labrador
Behind the system, much colder air is moving into Labrador. Labrador West falls below freezing overnight, with a few flurries possible, while rain and snow continue north of the low on Saturday.
Temperatures across Newfoundland will also turn noticeably cooler Saturday, with highs generally between 7°C and 13°C. Labrador will be colder still, with highs around 5°C to 7°C.
The good news is that Sunday looks considerably better. It will still be breezy in eastern and northeastern Newfoundland, but the strongest winds will be gone, skies improve and temperatures begin a gradual recovery heading into next week.
The next forecast update will be tomorrow morning! Check back for updates!
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