Next Round of Winter Weather Arrives Tuesday Evening, More Snow and Wind On The Way
There is absolutely no shortage of weather to talk about this evening. Just as we start catching our breath, another winter storm is lining up — and this one is going to make its presence known across eastern Newfoundland beginning tomorrow night and continuing into Thursday morning.
Across Newfoundland and Labrador, things are fairly quiet through Tuesday afternoon. If you have errands to run, travel plans to adjust, or snow to clear from the last round, tomorrow during the day is your window. Because after 4 or 5 PM, the radar is going to start lighting up along the southern and southeast Avalon. And from there, things ramp up quickly.
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The low we’re watching is currently off the U.S. East Coast near New Jersey and southeast of Cape Cod. It’s not particularly impressive right now, but it will be. This system is expected to rapidly intensify as it tracks northeast — classic bombogenesis territory — and when you see that kind of strengthening offshore in winter, eastern Newfoundland usually ends up in the conversation.
Snow arrives in southeastern and eastern Newfoundland late Tuesday evening and becomes heavy overnight. The most intense snowfall looks to occur between about midnight and 6 AM Wednesday, which means by the time many of you wake up Wednesday morning, it will already have been snowing hard for several hours. That’s when rates could reach 2 to 5 cm per hour in parts of the Avalon, particularly the northern half and St. John’s metro. After sunrise, it keeps snowing, but the rates ease back to something closer to 1 to 2 cm per hour.
And I want to say this now so there are no surprises: there may be a lull Wednesday afternoon on parts of the southeast Avalon. That does not mean the storm didn’t show up. It simply means the heaviest snow will have already fallen. We’ve seen that look before with these types of systems.
As for totals, St. John’s is sitting around the 30 cm mark from Tuesday evening through early Thursday morning, with the bulk of that falling before 6 AM Wednesday. The northern Avalon and Conception Bay North are in that 20 to 30 cm range as well, and if adjustments need to be made, they’re more likely to go up than down. The southwest and southeast Avalon look more like 10 to 20 cm, partly because of that potential lull and the chance of a bit of mixing. Bonavista Bay and the northeast peninsula are in the 10 to 20 cm range, while central areas like Grand Falls-Windsor and Lewisporte look closer to 5 to 10 cm. The Burin Peninsula and Connaigre likely just pick up a few centimetres.
It will be windy, though not the windiest storm we’ve seen this winter. Gusts into the 80 to 90 km/h range are likely Wednesday morning, with some areas flirting with 100 km/h later in the day. That’s enough to create blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibility, especially while it’s still coming down steadily. Winds begin easing Wednesday night into Thursday as cleanup gets underway.
One other thing to keep in mind — this is not fluffy powder. Temperatures will be near or slightly above freezing at times, which means we’re dealing with the classic St. John’s cement. Wet, heavy snow. The kind that sticks, packs, and makes shovelling a workout. It’s also trickier to forecast because wet snow has a lower snow-to-liquid ratio, so small changes in the liquid amounts can shift totals by several centimetres either way.
Once this system pulls away Thursday, there are signs a secondary low could redevelop and rotate more snow back across central and eastern Newfoundland later Thursday into Friday. Confidence on that is lower for now, so we’ll deal with that piece tomorrow.
Bottom line: this looks like a significant winter storm for the Avalon, especially the northern half and St. John’s metro. The worst of it comes overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, travel early Wednesday will likely be poor, and conditions improve gradually later Wednesday night into Thursday.
If you need to get ready, do it tomorrow before supper. I’ll be watching closely and will have updates through the day — and likely a live stream once things get going.
I’ll have my next update posted tomorrow morning!
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