Heavy rain, high winds on the docket for tonight and Friday
Thursday started off relatively quiet across Newfoundland and Labrador, but that calm is quickly fading. Clouds have thickened this afternoon, and an active stretch of weather is now moving in from the Maritimes.
Tonight into Friday will bring a mix of heavy rain, snow, and strong winds across much of the Province, with some areas seeing significant impacts.
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A Rainmaker for Eastern Newfoundland
This system is not shaping up to be a major snow producer for most of the Island—but it is going to be a significant rainmaker, particularly across southeastern Newfoundland.
Snow will develop this evening, including across the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas, but the transition to rain will happen fairly quickly overnight. By the time we get into the early morning hours Friday, most eastern areas will be dealing with rain, and at times, it’s going to be heavy. Rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm will be common across a large portion of eastern Newfoundland, but there is a corridor—especially across parts of the Avalon—where totals could push into the 70 to 90 mm range. That’s a lot of water in a relatively short period of time, and it raises concerns for localized flooding, particularly in areas with poor drainage.
Snow Still Plays a Role to the West and in Labrador
While eastern areas flip over to rain quickly, areas farther west will hold onto snow longer. That includes the west coast, the Northern Peninsula, and southeastern Labrador, where colder air will be more stubborn to move out.
In these regions, snowfall will continue through the night and into Friday, with several centimetres expected and locally higher amounts possible. On parts of the Island—especially the south coast—some areas could see 10 to 20 cm fall in a fairly short window before the eventual changeover to rain.
Blowing snow will also be an issue in exposed areas, particularly where winds pick up overnight. Reduced visibility and rapidly changing conditions are likely in those regions through Friday morning.
Wind Will Make It Feel Worse
Adding to all of this will be strong winds, particularly across eastern Newfoundland. The Avalon Peninsula is under wind warnings, and for good reason.
Winds will increase overnight, with gusts reaching 70 to 100 km/h in exposed areas. There will likely be two periods of stronger winds—one overnight, and another pushing in around midday Friday. When you combine those winds with heavy rainfall, it’s going to be a raw, uncomfortable day. If you’re outside, you’re getting soaked quickly, and travel could be challenging at times, especially in exposed and coastal areas.
How This Plays Out: Timing the System
Snow begins this evening across southern Newfoundland and spreads northward through the night. It doesn’t take long for eastern areas to transition over to rain, with that change happening around or shortly after midnight for many.
Friday morning starts off wet and windy across the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas, while snow continues across western Newfoundland and Labrador. As we move through the day, the heaviest rain becomes focused on eastern areas, with the Avalon seeing some of the most persistent and intense rainfall.
By Friday afternoon, conditions gradually begin to improve from west to east, although the rain will linger longest on the Avalon before tapering off later in the day.
Big Temperature Swings with This System
Temperatures will respond quickly to this system. Ahead of the cold front, milder air surges into eastern Newfoundland, pushing temperatures up into the 7 to 9°C range on Friday, especially on the Avalon.
Farther west, temperatures will be closer to freezing or just above, which is why precipitation types will vary so much across the Island.
Once the cold front passes, temperatures will drop off quickly Friday night, setting the stage for a much colder pattern heading into the weekend.
A Colder, More Winter-Like Weekend
Behind this system, Arctic air pushes back into the Province. Saturday will feel much different, with temperatures struggling well below freezing across most areas.
Highs on the Avalon will sit around -3°C, with even colder conditions across central and western Newfoundland. Sunday remains cold as well, with a few flurries possible in some areas.
There’s also a bit of uncertainty around a potential for light snow on the Avalon late Saturday, but at this point it looks minor—or possibly staying offshore altogether.
Bottom Line
This is a classic Newfoundland system where you get a bit of everything. Eastern areas will deal with heavy rain and strong winds, while western regions and Labrador hold onto snow longer.
There is a real risk of localized flooding in areas that see the heaviest rainfall, and travel conditions will vary significantly depending on where you are.
Once this moves through, winter isn’t quite done with us yet. Colder air returns for the weekend, reminding us that spring still has a bit of a fight left in it.
I’ll have my next update posted tomorrow morning!
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