Enjoy the Sunshine — A Wet Labour Day Weekend May Be Coming
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Tuesday brought a bit of everything to Newfoundland, especially on the Avalon where sunshine, clouds and passing showers all made an appearance.
By the evening, showers were still moving from north to south across eastern Newfoundland, with other pockets of rain showing up over parts of central, western and southern areas as well. The good news is that those showers will become less numerous tonight as skies gradually begin to clear.
Temperatures will also turn noticeably cooler overnight. Some areas of Newfoundland will fall into the single digits, while much of Labrador drops to around 3°C to 4°C. It is September now, after all, and meteorological fall has officially arrived.
Wednesday should be an improvement.
More sunshine is expected across Newfoundland, although a passing shower cannot be completely ruled out, particularly over the interior. Highs will generally reach the middle to upper teens. Labrador looks even better, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures recovering into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Overall, the weather through the remainder of the work week looks fairly comfortable. Temperatures across Newfoundland should generally sit in the upper teens to lower 20s, and there should be plenty of decent weather around through Friday.
Unfortunately, the timing of the next system could not be much worse.
Confidence is increasing that a strong area of low pressure will develop near Nova Scotia late this week before slowly moving south and east of Newfoundland between Friday night and Monday. The system may have difficulty moving because of a blocking area of high pressure to the north, and that slow movement could open the door to a prolonged period of rain.
It is also an unusually strong setup for early September. The strength of the low in the middle levels of the atmosphere looks more like something we would typically see later in the fall or even during the early winter.
That raises the concern for heavy rainfall.
Current guidance is showing a greater than 50% probability of at least 50 mm of rain over parts of southeastern and eastern Newfoundland during the Labour Day long weekend. On portions of the Avalon, that probability is currently above 70%.
Some individual forecast models are even suggesting rainfall totals approaching 100 mm over parts of the Avalon between late Friday and Monday.
Those numbers are far from locked in. The exact track of the low will determine where the heaviest rain falls, and that could still shift considerably over the next few days. However, when the signal for heavy rain is this strong several days in advance, it is worth paying attention.
Right now, southern, southeastern and eastern Newfoundland appear to have the greatest risk of seeing a wet Labour Day weekend, with rain potentially lingering through Saturday, Sunday and Monday and possibly even into Tuesday.
Hopefully the forecast improves, but for now anyone with outdoor plans over the holiday weekend should keep a close eye on the forecast as the details become clearer.
The next forecast update will be tomorrow morning! Check back for updates!
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