Active Weather Returns as Rain, Wind and Regatta Uncertainty Take Centre Stage
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An area of low pressure approaching from the west will make for a much more active couple of days across Newfoundland and Labrador, bringing widespread rain, gusty winds and even the chance of thunderstorms before things gradually improve later this week.
Rain is already spreading into western Labrador this evening and will become heavy and steady overnight before continuing through much of Tuesday. Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a Rainfall Warning for Labrador City and Wabush, where up to 60 millimetres of rain is expected by Tuesday evening. Much of central and western Labrador will likely see between 25 and 50 millimetres of rain, with locally higher amounts possible around Churchill Falls.
On the Island, Tuesday starts on a quieter note. Most areas will wake up to cloudy skies, but the bulk of the rain holds off until the afternoon and evening. As the low-pressure system approaches, showers will spread from west to east, eventually reaching central and eastern Newfoundland Tuesday night. There is also the potential for a line of thunderstorms to accompany the rain as it moves across the Island.
The tightening pressure gradient around the low will bring gusty southeasterly winds to many areas. The strongest winds are expected in the Wreckhouse region, where a Wind Warning is in effect for gusts approaching 100 km/h on Tuesday. But many areas will see gusts in the 40 to 70 km/h range between later Tuesday and Wednesday. Which brings us to Regatta Day…
The forecast for Wednesday remains highly dependent on the exact track of the low-pressure system. Current guidance suggests the low could track over Avalon or just north of it on Wednesday. If the centre of the low tracks over the Avalon, winds on Quidi Vidi Lake would be lighter. If it tracks farther north, stronger winds could create problems for racing. There will be some showers too, but when it comes to rowing, generally rain showers aren’t a tremendous concern.
At this point, scattered showers remain possible Wednesday, along with gusts that could reach 40 to 50 km/h across parts of the Avalon. That's near the upper limit of what's generally considered safe for rowing, making this year's Regatta forecast one of the trickiest in recent memory. The good news is we won't have to wait long for more confidence. By Tuesday night and especially Wednesday morning, the storm's track should be much better defined, giving organizers a clearer picture of whether races can proceed. Remember that call isn’t made until very early Wednesday morning by the Regatta Committee.
Beyond midweek, the forecast improves. Temperatures climb back into the upper teens and 20s across much of the province, with warmer weather returning for the latter half of the week and into next weekend.
For now, though, expect umbrellas, rain jackets and a close eye on Wednesday's forecast.
The next forecast update will be tomorrow morning! Check back for updates!
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