Thursday Evening Forecast: Rain on the Way, Fire Risk Continues

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As we look ahead toward the weekend, much of Newfoundland and Labrador will be impacted by unsettled weather, with rainfall, gusty winds, and some localized fire concerns all in the mix.

Wildfire Situation Remains Active

As of the latest update earlier today, three wildfires continue to burn across the province. Two of the most concerning are on the Island: one near Chance Harbour and the other close to Musgrave Harbour. While there was no overnight growth in the Musgrave Harbour fire as of Thursday morning, conditions may have allowed for some spread during the day, particularly due to gusty southerly winds.

Winds in the Gander area were clocked at 26 km/h by mid-afternoon, and that southerly flow—shifting to southwesterly in places—was expected to push fire activity to the north and northeast, potentially closer to key infrastructure like the highway near Musgrave Harbour. These conditions warranted close monitoring throughout the day, with updates shared via the Sheerr Weather app, website, and social platforms as available.

Rain Returns to Western Newfoundland First

Scattered showers began appearing on radar Thursday afternoon, initially focused over western and southwestern Newfoundland. The showers were in the process of falling apart as they moved toward the eastern half of the Island. The showers become more widespread overnight for parts of western Newfoundland and Great Northern Peninsula.

A couple of waves of moisture are lined up to impact the region: one over the Gaspé Peninsula and another around western Quebec and eastern Ontario. These waves set the stage for our next organized system, which is expected to develop south of the region—across the Maritimes— Friday night and into Saturday.

Friday: On-and-Off Showers, Storm Risk for Labrador

By Friday morning, numerous showers are anticipated for parts of the Northern Peninsula and western Newfoundland. Scattered showers will be found across the rest of the Island Friday morning. Through the day, those showers will ease briefly before becoming more widespread once again across the south and southwest coasts by afternoon. Eastern Labrador could also see scattered showers or thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening.

Rain then becomes more widespread over eastern Newfoundland by Friday night—especially west of the Avalon—with that trend continuing into Saturday. Some improvement is expected Saturday evening, with conditions drying out for most areas in time for weekend events.

For those attending concerts in the St. John's area this weekend: Friday night was looking mostly dry, with only a chance of showers. Saturday night also carried a slight chance of showers, but things appeared to improve by late evening as the system moved off.

Rainfall Totals Through Saturday

The heaviest rainfall totals are expected along the south coast, especially around Port aux Basques, where more than 30 mm is forecast to fall by Friday evening. That moisture is projected to spread northeastward. Clarenville, for example, is forecast to see more than 30 mm by Saturday morning, while St. John’s remains on the lower end with just 2 mm expected through the same period. By Saturday evening, much of eastern Newfoundland will have picked up measurable rain. Notably, the Chance Harbour area is forecast to receive close to 40 mm, while Musgrave Harbour was only expected to see around 11 mm—though higher totals there certainly wouldn’t go astray in the firefighting efforts. As always… this forecast is subject to change!

More Broad Look at the Weekend

Temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild, even with rain moving through. Morning lows will drop into the mid-to-upper teens, rebounding into the low 20s by afternoon. Some areas will be cooler, with highs in the middle to upper teens. Saturday afternoon will see some cool temps along and near the northeast coast in a brief bout of onshore flow. Looking ahead to Sunday, it appears to be the more favourable day for outdoor plans, with improving skies and fewer showers in the mix. I’ll have a food fishery forecast posted tomorrow as well.

Cooler air returns for Saturday and Sunday in parts of the Big Land after a Friday of highs in the 20s for parts of the coast and Goose Bay! Highs drop into the mid-to-upper teens. Sunday brings a small chance of showers, but nothing that should ruin the day.

Avalon Seven-Day & Regatta Day Watch

The Avalon Peninsula is expected to hold in the 20s all the way through mid-week. Of note: next Wednesday is Regatta Day—an earlier date this year due to the Canada Games. Early signs pointed to a risk of showers and a potential wind concern, so that’ll be something to monitor closely in the days ahead. Wind is the biggest driver of Regatta Day going ahead… or not.

Longer Range Pattern: Cooler Week Ahead

Looking ahead to next week, the jet stream is expected to dip over eastern North America, ushering in a cooler air mass over Quebec and Atlantic Canada. As a result, temperatures are forecast to trend near or even slightly below normal—not the hot and humid conditions we saw earlier this summer.