Wet, heavy snow takes hold on the Avalon tonight ahead of raw weekend for NL
Another late-season winter storm is taking aim at eastern Newfoundland tonight, and yes — I know. You can feel the collective sigh from here.
The satellite and radar loop this afternoon showed a well-organized area of low pressure spinning to the southeast of Newfoundland, and snow was already beginning to work its way toward the easternmost parts of the Avalon as of mid-afternoon. Here in St. John's, things were still quiet heading into the early evening, but don't get comfortable — the heavier snow is coming.
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What to expect tonight
Winds will gust close to 60 km/h overnight, and temperatures will hover near zero, which means we're dealing with heavy, wet snow. And I do mean heavy in both senses — it's going to fall at a decent clip, and it's going to be a workout to move. There's also some residual ice on the trees from recent weather, so the added snow weight could mean more tree damage than you'd typically see from a late-season storm
Snowfall totals
The further west you go, the less snow you'll see. Here's the breakdown:
Bonavista Peninsula / Clarenville area: A couple of centimetres, or possibly just freezing drizzle
Placentia Bay southwest Avalon: 5 to 10 cm
Avalon North: 10 to 15 cm
Eastern Avalon / Northeast Avalon: Up to 25 cm
If we do see the higher end of those totals, my suspicion is it'll be centred on the St. John's metro, and specifically the higher terrain — Paradise, Mount Pearl, Airport Heights, the usual suspects. Coastal areas will likely come in on the lower end.
Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued Yellow Level Snowfall Warnings for Avalon Southeast and St. John's and Vicinity. That said, just because your area isn't under a warning doesn't mean you won't see snow — it just means totals aren't expected to hit warning criteria.
The bulk of the accumulation should be done by 9 or 10 Saturday morning, with snow changing to rain or ending after that.
Beyond the Avalon: Central NL and Labrador
The rest of the weekend brings snow to other parts of the province as well.
In central Newfoundland, snow will develop Saturday afternoon and persist through about midday Sunday. Grand Falls-Windsor is looking at 5 to 10 cm, while the Gander area could see 10 to 20 cm — a significant amount. Further north, Lewisport sits right on the edge; the area near the Marina probably won't see much, but head inland toward the junction and you'll likely run into considerably more. Twillingate and Fogo Island are looking at 2 cm or less.
Along the Labrador coast, moisture will continue funnelling in, starting as rain and switching to snow later tonight or Saturday. Inland and higher terrain — especially around Cartwright — could see over 30 cm. Coastal areas are looking at 10 to 20 cm. I'll be watching closely for potential alerts in the Red Bay to Mary's Harbour corridor, where the highway runs slightly inland. If an alert is issued, you'll see it in the app first.
Looking ahead: a much-needed pattern change
Here's the good news. Once this system pushes off to the southeast and high pressure builds in Sunday, we're setting up for a genuinely nice stretch of weather. Sunshine returns and temperatures climb significantly heading into next week — and on the south coast, that trend starts even earlier, with temperatures reaching 7 or 8°C Saturday.
For western Labrador, we could even see temperatures in the teens by mid-week, and the models may actually be underestimating the warmth. Keep an eye on your forecast.
One more thing: icebergs
With northerly and northeasterly winds persisting over the coming days, conditions are actually good for iceberg watching. There are significant numbers of bergs east of the Avalon right now — well over 100 in the surrounding area based on the latest chart. The flow is pushing them generally toward the Newfoundland shoreline, so keep your eyes open. Most are still quite far offshore, but that could change as the weeks go on. Spot one? Let me know.
I'll have a snow later this evening as things get going and/or tomorrow morning.
The next forecast drops bright and early Thursday morning.
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