Tracking fog, drizzle, and Hurricane Melissa in this evening’s forecast
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It’s a day of contrast across the region — while Newfoundland and Labrador enjoy relatively quiet weather, Jamaica is bracing for catastrophic impacts from Hurricane Melissa.
Hurricane Melissa: A Dangerous Category 5 Storm
Melissa has strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane south of Jamaica with sustained winds near 280 km/h and a central pressure around 906 mb. The storm is moving very slowly to the west but is expected to turn northward tonight, speeding up as it approaches landfall.
A landfall is projected for around 7 a.m. Newfoundland time Tuesday, bringing destructive winds, storm surge, and torrential rainfall. Wind gusts exceeding 200 km/h are possible near and near the storm’s center, with rainfall totals between 500 mm and 750 mm — enough to trigger catastrophic flooding and widespread damage.
By Tuesday night and early Wednesday, Melissa will move off Jamaica and cross Cuba before heading into the Bahamas and then far southeast of Newfoundland by the weekend. While direct impacts to our region aren’t expected, some moisture from the system could enhance rainfall later this week.
Closer to Home: Mild, Cloudy Start to the Week
Across Newfoundland and Labrador, conditions remain calm compared to the tropics. A weak area of low pressure southeast of Halifax is spinning in some cloud and patchy drizzle for parts of the Avalon, Burin, and Bonavista Peninsulas, while high pressure over eastern Quebec keeps most of the island dry.
Tonight: Cloudy with some drizzle or fog in eastern Newfoundland; clearer in western areas and Labrador. Temperatures range from -3 °C in Labrador West along with parts of western and interior sections of the Island to around +4 to +5 °C in the east.
Tuesday: Cloudy and drizzly in eastern and northeastern Newfoundland, brighter in the west and southwest, and mostly sunny for the Northern Peninsula and Labrador. Highs will generally reach 9 to 11 °C, which is above seasonal averages.
Wednesday: Sunshine returns for most of Newfoundland and eastern Labrador with highs around 10 °C.
Late Week: A new system could bring rain to Newfoundland Friday into Saturday, while Labrador may see its first notable snowfall of the season.
Looking Ahead
The pattern turns more unsettled later this week as moisture increases ahead of the next system. Newfoundland will likely see more rain heading into the weekend, while colder air to the north introduces wintry possibilities for Labrador.
I’ll have another detailed update in the morning forecast, including any new developments on Hurricane Melissa and the weekend system.
