The weather improves for Thursday… But more winter weather may lie ahead on Friday
It’s been a slow-moving mess across Newfoundland and Labrador today, and tonight we start to see things gradually wind down… but not before a few more hours of mixed precipitation in some areas.
As we head through this evening, rain is taking over across much of the Avalon Peninsula, while parts of the Bonavista Peninsula are still dealing with freezing rain. Out west and into the Northern Peninsula and southeastern Labrador, it’s been a transition from freezing rain to ice pellets and eventually snow. That line between snow and ice pellets continues to push north and west overnight.
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By midnight, places like St. Anthony, Mary’s Harbour, and Port Hope Simpson are likely hearing that familiar “ting, ting” of ice pellets hitting the windows. Meanwhile, Cartwright stays in snow, the west coast continues to see snow, and the northeast coast is stuck in a messy mix. On the Avalon, it’s likely drizzle or freezing drizzle through the night.
By tomorrow morning, most of this system has shifted into southeastern Labrador. There will still be some lingering flurries along the west coast and parts of the Northern Peninsula, but overall things start to improve. I do think we’ll see at least some sunny breaks develop across southern and eastern Newfoundland as the day goes on, even if it takes a while to get there.
Labrador is a different story. In the westerly flow, snow will transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, and eventually rain through the afternoon. It’s another day of changing conditions there.
One area I’m keeping a close eye on is the Northern Peninsula and the Straits. Overnight and into early morning, places like St. Anthony and Mary’s Harbour are right on the line between ice pellets and freezing rain. That boundary is going to wobble around, and it won’t take much of a shift to change conditions significantly over short distances. By midday, some areas could still be dealing with freezing rain or rain, while others just to the south are in snow.
Ice accretion is a concern in that zone as well. Around St. Anthony, we’re looking at roughly 6 to 10+ mm of ice, with similar potential between Red Bay and Mary’s Harbour. That’s enough to cause issues, even though this hasn’t been classified as a major winter storm.
As for snowfall, there are still some decent totals where precipitation stays as snow. Along the Northern Peninsula and parts of coastal Labrador, 20 to 30+ cm is on the table. For central Newfoundland — especially north of Grand Falls-Windsor into Green Bay and White Bay — along with the west coast and into southeastern Labrador, about 10 to 20 cm from this evening through tomorrow evening looks reasonable.
One thing to keep in mind: the snow is on the wet side. Temperatures tonight sit around -1 to -5°C across most of Newfoundland, so this isn’t the light, fluffy stuff. It’s heavier and harder to move around.
Tomorrow, temperatures climb above freezing in many areas, especially in the south and east. That helps with improvement, but it also keeps things messy where precipitation lingers.
Looking ahead to Friday, it may start off quiet with some sunshine, but I’m watching another system developing to our south. There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty with this one. Some guidance keeps it far enough offshore that most of the precipitation misses us, while other solutions bring snow into the Avalon by Friday afternoon, spreading north and west Friday night.
And to be honest, the spread right now is frustrating. We’re seeing everything from next to nothing up to 30 or 40 cm depending on the model. That’s not helpful two days out. So for now, it’s something to watch, and I’ll have a much clearer picture in the next update.
Beyond that, the weekend still carries chances of snow or a mix, but there are signs of improvement early next week. By Wednesday, some areas could be pushing into the 10–12°C range — and after what we’ve been dealing with, that would feel pretty good.
Spring is trying to knock on the door. It’s just not quite ready to come in yet.
The next forecast drops bright and early Thursday morning.
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