The first major winter storm of the season arrives tomorrow
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Well, today is a beautiful Tuesday afternoon across Newfoundland and Labrador — but tomorrow afternoon will look nothing like this. A significant mid-week winter storm is lining up, and it’s going to hit different parts of the province in very different ways.
Let’s break it all down.
Labrador: Quiet but Cold
Labrador’s forecast is pretty straightforward over the next 24 hours.
Flurries tonight
Temperatures dipping into the –20s in the west and –teens along the coast
Sunshine returns Wednesday for coastal communities
Highs reaching around –6°C in Mary’s Harbour
Simple, cold, and calm — not much to stress about here.
Snow Arrives on the Island Tonight Into Wednesday Morning
Across Newfoundland, the snow moves into the south coast late tonight, spreading north into central, northeastern Newfoundland, the Burin Peninsula, and the Avalon by near sunrise Wednesday.
Overnight lows will be below freezing, so everything sticks.
Wednesday: Heavy Snow, High Winds, and a Tricky Rain/Snow Line
This storm is going to be messy, especially for eastern Newfoundland. Here’s what to expect:
Avalon & Burin Peninsulas
Snow develops early Wednesday morning
Snowfall rates of 5–8 cm/hr are likely mid-morning — that’s intense
A sharp rain/snow line sets up
Many areas go snow → ice pellets → rain → back to snow by Wednesday evening
Travel will become very difficult by mid-morning.
Central, Northeastern & Western Newfoundland
Much more straightforward
Just snow and wind throughout the day
Widespread 15–30 cm expected in central and northeast areas
Heavier totals (30–40+ cm) from the northern Burin Peninsula to the Bonavista Peninsula, Terra Nova, Clarenville, and the Connaigre region
Northern Peninsula
Lighter event
Around 5 cm or less, especially near St. Anthony
Weather Alerts Explained
Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a mix of orange (winter storm) and yellow (snowfall/wind) warnings across the Island.
A key reminder: No alert does NOT mean no snow — it just means impacts aren’t expected to reach warning criteria.
Current highlights:
Orange winter storm warnings:
Bonavista Peninsula
Clarenville area
Terra Nova
Connaigre
Up to 40 cm possible
Yellow snowfall warnings:
Burgeo–Ramea
Buchans & the Interior
Grand Falls–Windsor
Bay of Exploits
Gander
Bonavista North
Avalon Peninsula
Up to 20–30 cm depending on location
Yellow wind warnings:
Burin Peninsula Wednesday
Avalon Peninsula Wednesday evening into Thursday
Gusts up to 100 km/h from the north/northeast
Why the Avalon Forecast Is So Tricky
This is one of those situations where the forecast could be bang-on or way off, depending on the exact placement of the rain/snow line.
Model guidance for St. John’s is all over the place:
ECMWF: ~15 cm
GFS: ~15 cm
RDPS: ~28 cm
GRAF: ~5 cm
A huge spread.
The reason?
Snowfall rates will spike rapidly mid-morning — and if the changeover to ice pellets/rain is delayed even a couple of hours, totals could jump significantly.
Timing the Worst Conditions
Early Morning (6–9 AM)
Snow ongoing across eastern and central Newfoundland
Heaviest along the south coast and Burin Peninsula
Mid-Morning to Early Afternoon
Peak snowfall rates (5–8 cm/hr) on the Avalon
Rapid deterioration in travel conditions
Snow begins mixing with ice pellets/rain later in the afternoon
Evening
Precipitation transitions back to snow on the Avalon and Burin
Winds ramp up dramatically — gusts near 100 km/h
Snow tapers off west → east overnight
Thursday
Quiet, colder
Widespread cleanup day
Strong chance of school and business closures across many areas Wednesday
Late Week Outlook
Thursday: Calm and cool
Friday: Another system arrives
Rain → snow for eastern Newfoundland
Significant snow possible again for central and western areas
Labrador turns much colder
More on this one tomorrow.
Final Thoughts
This is shaping up to be a high-impact storm for much of Newfoundland, especially the Avalon, Burin, Bonavista Peninsula, Clarenville, and northeastern regions. The snowfall forecast for the Avalon is particularly challenging, but confidence is high in the timing and intensity of the snow mid-morning Wednesday.
I’ll have updates throughout the evening and again tomorrow as this storm evolves. Stay tuned — and stay safe.
I’ll have my next update posted over the weekend.
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