The first major storm of the season arrives Tuesday, and it may be a record breaker!
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A powerful storm system will bring damaging winds, heavy rain, storm surge, and even heavy snow to parts of Newfoundland and Labrador beginning Tuesday.
A rapidly deepening area of low pressure — undergoing what meteorologists call bombogenesis — will approach the Island from the south Tuesday, crossing Newfoundland Tuesday night and moving into the North Atlantic Wednesday. This “bomb cyclone” will see pressure drop more than 24 millibars in 24 hours, making it one of the strongest November systems ever recorded to cross the Island, with a central pressure potentially below 948 mb.
What’s Driving the Storm
Two separate areas of low pressure — one near Ottawa and another off southern New England — will merge, or “phase,” creating a single, powerful storm. This setup allows strong upper-level energy to feed into the developing low, helping it intensify rapidly as it nears Newfoundland.
The result will be a deep, vertically stacked storm system capable of producing hurricane-force wind gusts, heavy rain, and storm-driven coastal flooding.
Wind: The Main Concern
Winds will ramp up quickly Tuesday afternoon, peaking from late afternoon through Tuesday night, and again early Wednesday as the system pulls away.
Gusts 100–120 km/h are expected across the Avalon, Burin, and Bonavista Peninsulas, and possibly parts of the south and southwest coasts.
Model guidance often underestimates wind speeds in setups like this, so isolated gusts above 120 km/h can’t be ruled out.
The strongest winds are expected as the low passes just west of St. Pierre & Miquelon — one of the worst tracks for storm surge into Placentia Bay.
Wind warnings are in effect for most coastal regions of Newfoundland, with widespread power outages possible.
Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge
Because of the deep nature of this low and strong onshore winds, coastal flooding and erosion are major concerns.
South coast (Ramea → Burin Peninsula): 4–6 m waves, peaking around 6–8 p.m. Tuesday.
Southern Avalon (Trepassey area): 6–9 m waves, impacting the breakwater during high tide Tuesday evening and again Wednesday morning.
Northeast Avalon and East Coast: higher-than-normal tides Wednesday night through Friday morning as winds shift.
Coastal Labrador: coastal flood risk Thursday into Friday as the system moves north.
Rain and Snow
Heavy rain will spread across Newfoundland Tuesday morning and intensify through the afternoon.
Rainfall totals: 40–70 mm across much of the Island, with localized amounts near 80 mm in higher terrain and along the south and west coasts.
Rainfall warnings are in effect from the Burin Peninsula through the southwest coast.
Snow: confined mainly to higher elevations of western Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador, where 15–40 cm is possible over the hills. Lower elevations will see mostly rain or a rain/snow mix.
Timing Breakdown
Tuesday Morning: Calm start. Conditions deteriorate by midday as rain spreads in.
Tuesday Afternoon–Evening: Peak winds, heavy rain, storm surge for south and east coasts.
Tuesday Night: Storm center crosses near Harbour Breton or Terra Nova — brief lull, then another surge of wind overnight.
Wednesday: Winds remain strong (gusts 80–90 km/h) but gradually ease through the day.
Late Week: Another system may bring flurries or light snow by Thursday and Friday.
The Bottom Line
This will be a major storm — the strongest November system on record if it deepens as expected. Expect:
Damaging winds
Heavy rain and localized flooding
Coastal erosion and possible infrastructure damage
Power outages
Snow over high terrain
Stay tuned to Sheerr Weather for live coverage Tuesday afternoon and evening and updates throughout the day Wednesday.
I’ll have my next update posted tomorrow morning!
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