Rain, Wind and Even Snow as a Slow-Moving Low Takes Over
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Rain has already arrived across central and western Newfoundland, and in a few areas it’s coming down hard. That rain will continue spreading east tonight as a slow-moving area of low pressure over Quebec begins a multi-day trek toward Labrador. For eastern Newfoundland, the heavier rain holds off until later tonight and overnight. The southern Avalon is currently under a rainfall warning, with up to around 50 mm possible by Tuesday morning. Other parts of eastern and central Newfoundland will also see a decent amount of rain, but this does not look like a widespread major rainfall event for the Island.
Most areas will generally pick up around 15 to 25 mm, with some spots closer to 25 or 30 mm. The higher terrain of western Newfoundland could also see locally heavier amounts Tuesday into Wednesday as onshore showers become enhanced by the terrain. There’s also a risk of a few thundershowers late tonight into Tuesday morning around the Burin and Avalon peninsulas, something I’ll be keeping an eye on.
Wind will also become a factor. Bay St. George is under a wind warning for gusts up to 100 km/h, while the Wreckhouse area could see southeast gusts as high as 110 km/h before those winds ease later tonight or early Tuesday.
Elsewhere, the winds will be noticeable but generally not extreme. Gusts of 40 to 60 km/h will be fairly common Tuesday, with parts of western and southwestern Newfoundland potentially reaching 70 to 80 km/h by later in the day. Coastal Labrador will also turn windy early Wednesday, with some areas potentially gusting between 60 and 80 km/h.
Labrador gets a taste of winter
The more interesting side of this system may be in Labrador, where colder air will allow some of the precipitation to fall as wet snow.
A widespread 25 to 50 mm of precipitation is expected across parts of Labrador, but in the higher terrain a significant portion of that could fall as snow. Some of the higher elevations could potentially see 30 cm or more. That does not mean communities like Labrador City, Wabush or Churchill Falls are about to get buried. Temperatures in those lower elevations are still marginal, and most of the significant accumulation should stay in the hills and higher terrain. Wet flakes are certainly possible in Labrador West and around Churchill Falls, but accumulation in town should be limited.
By Tuesday morning, rain will be falling over parts of Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador, with a rain-snow mix developing farther inland and west across Labrador. As the secondary low strengthens Tuesday, colder air gets pulled in and the snow becomes a little more widespread in the higher terrain.
By Tuesday evening, flakes should be flying across parts of Labrador while Newfoundland transitions more toward showers.
Improvement arrives Wednesday
The low finally begins pulling away early Wednesday. Conditions improve first in Labrador West, then more slowly along the Labrador coast. Newfoundland should see a much more noticeable improvement Wednesday, although it will remain cool and breezy.
After that, the forecast settles down considerably. Newfoundland gets back into the middle teens Thursday and Friday in many areas, while western Newfoundland trends cooler by the weekend. Labrador stays colder, with more opportunities for rain and snow showers later in the week as the autumn pattern becomes more established.
So the next couple of days are going to be unsettled: heavy rain in spots tonight, gusty winds Tuesday, and the first more meaningful taste of winter in the higher terrain of Labrador.
The good news is that once we get through Tuesday or Wednesday, the weather starts heading in a better direction.
