Rain, Wet Snow & Wind Return To This Week’s Forecast
Another week, another slow-moving weather maker for Newfoundland and parts of Labrador — and this one comes with a little bit of everything: rain, wet snow, and wind. Pockets of rain (some heavy) and showers have already been the theme across the province today as an area of low pressure and its trailing cold front begin to work their way in. Here's how I see the rest of the week playing out, where the heaviest rain sets up, who's getting snow on Wednesday, and a first peek at the long weekend.
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The setup is classic for a drawn-out, soggy stretch. The cold front pushing into us tonight and tomorrow is going to stall as it crosses Newfoundland. That stalled boundary is a beautiful spot for a secondary area of low pressure to develop along it — and that's exactly what the models are showing. That secondary low is the engine that drives our soaking rain on Tuesday and into Wednesday, before things finally start to change over to snow in some areas behind it on Wednesday.
When a front stalls and a wave rides along it, you get persistent moisture transport, repeated rounds of precipitation over the same areas, and just enough cold air sliding in on the back side to flip the precipitation type once the low pulls away. That's where the wet snow story comes in for the higher terrain.
Tonight: the calm before
No major rainfall in the forecast overnight tonight. Province-wide we go near or just below freezing in western Labrador, and a touch above almost everywhere else. South-facing shores in southeastern Newfoundland are looking at the risk of dense fog as that warmer, moist air moves in ahead of the system.
Tuesday: the soaking rain arrives
By Tuesday morning, friends along the south coast, southeast Avalon, and the Burin Peninsula are waking up to rain, drizzle, and fog. The heaviest rain at that point is still over Nova Scotia and offshore.
That changes in the afternoon. Through Tuesday afternoon and evening, a soaking, steady rain fills in across most of Newfoundland and southeast Labrador, and there will be areas of heavy rain within it. By Tuesday evening. Winds also pick up through the day: gusts of 40 to 50 km/h for a lot of us.
Highs Tuesday: 5 to 10°C on the island. In Labrador, 5 to 10°C overall, with some sunny breaks in the north and parts of the interior. Around central Labrador (Goose Bay area), sunny and 13°C before the change.
The other thing I want to flag on Tuesday evening: snow starts to show up over the Cape Breton Highlands. That's cold air rushing in on the back side of the low — and the same thing is going to happen for us across Newfoundland Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Wednesday: snow in the higher terrain, wind across the board
By Wednesday morning, the colder air has caught up and we've got snow falling in the higher terrain of southeastern Labrador and western Newfoundland. Most of it stays inland over higher terrain for the first part of the day. But as Wednesday wears on, it gets cold enough that even lower elevations on the west coast — including Corner Brook — see a period of snow.
How much are we talking about? Here's the honest read:
Highest peaks (western NL and southeast Labrador): 20 cm is a good possibility. This is significant snow — heavy, wet snow.
Lower elevations of western Newfoundland: up to about 5 cm of slushy, wet snow, maybe a bit more.
Along the coast: a couple of slushy centimeters at most.
This is not a great snow setup in terms of efficiency. We're in May. Temperatures are going to be marginal — 1 to 3°C in western Newfoundland and southeast Labrador. If it were a little colder we'd see considerably more, but the marginal temperatures will hold things back outside the high terrain.
If you have travel plans Wednesday that take you into the higher terrain of western Newfoundland or southeast Labrador, pay attention to what Mother Nature is laying down, because it's going to be heavy, wet snow.
Rainfall totals look impressive
By the time we get to Wednesday evening, we're looking at a widespread 25 to 50+ mm across a large swath of interior and central Newfoundland, and even parts of the west coast, although some of that west-coast total may fall as snow. Either way, it wouldn't surprise me to see special weather statements or a rainfall warning from Environment Canada after I finish recording this — it's currently 3:30 PM on May 11.
The wind kicks up
As that area of low pressure intensifies on its way into the North Atlantic, Wednesday's winds gust close to 70 km/h for a lot of us.
Highs Wednesday: 1 to 3°C in western Newfoundland and southeast Labrador (where the wet snow is). Central and eastern Newfoundland is warmer — 6, 7, 8°C under a mix of sun and cloud, with a few showers at times, but breezy. Snow ends by Thursday.
Thursday and Friday: the better window
After Wednesday clears out, Thursday and Friday are not looking too bad — a decent start to the May 2-4 long weekend. In Labrador, once we get through Wednesday it's a pretty good stretch: highs back to the mid teens in the south, around 10°C in the north on Thursday, 11°C in the west on Thursday and 13°C Friday after a beautiful Wednesday. Around Goose Bay, expect a few showers Wednesday, then sunny and 17°C Thursday and near 20°C Friday.
The May 2-4 long weekend: not great — but not over
A first look at the holiday weekend: a slow-moving low returns just in time for later Friday, and that brings a risk of dense fog (RDF) to much of Newfoundland through Sunday, potentially into Monday. The west coast may have a decent Sunday and Monday, and the south coast as well. The Northern Peninsula looks chilly.
For Labrador — and this is the headline — that's where the winning weather is going to be. Especially in Labrador West and around Goose Bay, where highs could be in the mid teens for the long weekend, holding into Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
There are still a few days to work this out. The Newfoundland piece in particular could shift either way as the long-wave pattern resolves. I'll update you on the May 2-4 long weekend as we get closer.
The next forecast update will be posted bright and early Thursday morning!
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