January Thaw Lingers Into Friday On the Island While Winter Weather Takes Hold in Labrador
January’s thaw is well underway across much of Newfoundland, with temperatures climbing well above normal for this time of year. Many areas are already near 10°C this afternoon, and tomorrow will feel very similar for a good portion of the island.
That said, this is a complex and high-impact forecast, especially when you factor in heavy rainfall for parts of Newfoundland and significant snowfall for Labrador.
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Widespread Rainfall Warnings for Newfoundland
Yellow-level rainfall warnings are in effect from northeastern Newfoundland through central regions, the south coast, the Channel, and the Port aux Basques area.
From tonight through Friday, a widespread 25–50 mm of rain is expected across much of central and southern Newfoundland. Localized flooding is certainly possible, particularly:
Along the south coast
In southern portions of the Avalon Peninsula
Some of these areas could see more than 50 mm before the system moves out.
Heavy Snow Returns to Labrador
While rain dominates the island, Labrador is dealing with a very different setup.
A winter storm watch is in place for southeastern Labrador, where snowfall will arrive in two main waves — today and again tomorrow. South of the Goose Bay area, including Eagle River, Cartwright, and down toward Mary’s Harbour, a widespread 15–30 cm of snow is expected, with localized totals exceeding 30 cm.
Western Labrador will also experience a sharp temperature contrast, with values plunging to near −31°C by Friday morning.
Northern Peninsula: Rain Quickly Turns to Snow
On the Northern Peninsula, rain will switch over to snow early Friday. By Saturday morning, 15–30 cm of snow is expected.
Travel conditions along Route 430 toward St. Anthony are likely to deteriorate quickly Friday morning, and those poor conditions will gradually shift south as the rain-snow line moves during the afternoon and evening. An alert for this region is likely.
Strong Winds Add to the Impact
It will also be windy, particularly for southern and eastern Newfoundland.
60–80 km/h gusts by Friday morning
Widespread 80–100 km/h gusts by midday Friday, including the St. John’s metro area
Strong winds continue into Friday evening and shift toward the south coast overnight
Winds will begin to ease early Saturday, but Friday will be a very blustery day across much of the island.
A Remarkable Warm Air Surge
This storm system has an impressive reach, stretching snow back through Quebec and into the Great Lakes while pushing very warm air northward ahead of it.
At one point Friday morning, eastern Newfoundland may actually be warmer than parts of the southeastern United States, including areas of Florida — something that doesn’t happen very often.
This rapid warm-to-cold transition is driven by a sharp jet stream pattern and will be responsible for the quick flip from rain to snow and the rapid drop in temperatures in northern areas.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend and Beyond
The system exits late Friday night into early Saturday, and the weekend looks relatively quiet overall, though:
A mix of rain and snow is possible on Sunday, especially in eastern, central, and northern areas
Early next week looks somewhat milder at first, but signals are growing for a colder, snowier pattern returning later next week, particularly toward Thursday and Friday
This is a trend worth watching closely.
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My next forecast update will be Friday morning.
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