Frost Tonight, Rain Arrives Friday, Strong Winds Saturday
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A frosty night is ahead for parts of central and western Newfoundland, but the bigger weather story comes as we head into Friday and Saturday.
Environment and Climate Change Canada has a frost advisory in effect for early Friday morning, with the usual colder spots most likely to see patchy frost. That includes areas around Badger, Buchans, Millertown, Deer Lake and potentially Rocky Harbour and Cormack. Frost will not be widespread across the Island, and eastern Newfoundland should stay considerably milder with lows near or above 10°C.
Friday starts quietly for most of Newfoundland, with some morning sun before clouds increase. Rain begins moving into southwestern Newfoundland during the afternoon, then spreads farther east through the evening. By around 6 PM, much of the Island should be seeing rain, with the Avalon among the last areas to get into it.
The system responsible is an area of low pressure that will develop as energy moving out of northeastern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario combines with moisture farther south. The good news is that the low now looks like it will move across Newfoundland faster than earlier forecasts suggested. That faster track matters as it should keep the very strongest winds offshore Saturday, which is a positive change from what some guidance was showing earlier this week. That said, a large part of Newfoundland will still see a very windy Saturday, with gusts in the 70 to 100 km/h range possible across parts of central, northeastern and eastern Newfoundland.
The strongest winds should develop on the backside of the low as it pulls away during the day Saturday. Current guidance has gusts around 90 km/h in places like Lumsden and Bonavista, with 70 to 85 km/h possible around St. John’s. Winds remain elevated into Saturday evening before easing overnight.
Rainfall will not be especially heavy for most of Newfoundland. A widespread 5 to 15 mm is expected, while higher terrain in western Newfoundland could see closer to 20 or 25 mm. The Northern Peninsula is the exception, where 25 to 50 mm is possible, with locally higher amounts.
For many areas, Saturday may actually be more of a wind story than a rain story. That is especially true across central and eastern Newfoundland, where rainfall may be limited by the time the strongest winds arrive.
Labrador has a very different setup.
Cold air moving into Labrador West will be enough to support some wet snow Friday. Accumulations should be limited, likely a trace to 2 cm in lower terrain, but there is a real chance of seeing flakes flying through the morning and afternoon. Temperatures will hover around 3°C to 5°C, making it a marginal setup, but certainly cold enough to mention.
Once this system moves out, the weather improves fairly quickly.
Sunday looks much better across Newfoundland, and next week is shaping up to be relatively quiet with highs generally in the mid to upper teens and only a few showers here and there.
The next forecast update will be tomorrow morning! Check back for updates!
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