Enjoy Thursday — A Potent Low Develops Friday Night
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Wednesday’s rain will move away from Newfoundland overnight, setting the stage for a much better Thursday across most of the Island.
The bulk of the rain should be offshore by midnight, with skies clearing overnight. By Thursday morning, much of Newfoundland should be waking up to blue skies, and sunshine will dominate through the day. Temperatures will respond nicely, with highs reaching the upper teens and lower 20s in many areas.
Labrador is heading in the opposite direction. A cold front is pushing into the Big Land, bringing the coldest air we’ve seen so far this season. Overnight lows will fall to around 3°C in Labrador City, 6°C in Churchill Falls and 4°C in Nain. Thursday will stay cool, with highs of only 8°C or 9°C in Labrador West. There may even be some wet snow in the higher terrain north of Happy Valley-Goose Bay Thursday morning.
Another disturbance moving through eastern Quebec Thursday night into Friday will reinforce that cold air. That could be enough to produce some flakes in the Torngats and perhaps even parts of Labrador West Friday morning. I’m not expecting much, if any, accumulation in lower elevations, but seeing a few flakes fall would not be surprising. Additional flurries will also be possible at times over northern and western Labrador through the weekend, with daytime highs in the 6°C to 8°C range.
For Newfoundland, Thursday is the day to enjoy. The weather turns much more unsettled Friday night as an area of low pressure begins developing over the Island. That low is expected to strengthen quickly between late Friday and midday Saturday before moving offshore later Saturday.
Rain should begin moving into southern and western Newfoundland Friday evening, with rain also developing on the Avalon. By early Saturday, much of the Island will be dealing with rain, with the most persistent precipitation likely north and west of the developing low.
The bigger issue may be the wind. Current guidance is showing the potential for a core of very strong winds to develop as the low intensifies and moves across Newfoundland. Central and northeastern Newfoundland would likely see the strongest winds first Saturday morning before that stronger wind field rotates toward Bonavista Bay and eventually the Avalon later in the day.
As of Wednesday afternoon, gusts around 80 to 100 km/h are being indicated for the St. John’s area Saturday afternoon. Forecast gusts are a little higher around the Bonavista Peninsula, while Twillingate and Fogo Island are also showing the potential for gusts near 90 to 100 km/h. Those numbers are not unheard of in Newfoundland, but the time of year matters. Trees still have their leaves, and the ground remains relatively soft. If winds do reach those levels, the impacts could be greater than we might typically see with similar winds later in the fall or winter.
There is still uncertainty in exactly how this low develops. If it strengthens a little later or farther offshore, the strongest winds would also shift farther offshore. If it develops as currently projected, parts of central, northeastern and eastern Newfoundland could see a fairly significant period of wind Saturday. That will be the part of the forecast I’ll be watching most closely over the next couple of days.
The good news is that this system should move along fairly quickly. Conditions begin improving later Saturday, and Sunday currently looks much better across Newfoundland.
The next forecast update will be tomorrow morning! Check back for updates!
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