Does This Week End On An Unsettled Note?
This evening’s forecast is sponsored by:
After a stretch of unsettled weather, conditions are improving across Newfoundland and Labrador — and Thursday looks like the best day of the next several.
The area of low pressure responsible for Wednesday’s wind and showers will continue to move away tonight. Winds will ease across the province, with overnight lows near or slightly below freezing in parts of Labrador and generally between 2°C and 7°C across Newfoundland.
Thursday Looks Good for Most of Newfoundland
Thursday will start quiet across the province. Across Newfoundland, expect generally sunny skies with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper teens. A stray shower is possible along the west coast, but for most areas it should be a dry and pleasant October day.
Conditions will begin changing sooner in Labrador as the next system approaches from the west. Rain will spread into southern Labrador by around midday Thursday, with some snow possible over the higher terrain. That system will then begin influencing Newfoundland Thursday night and Friday.
Rain Returns Thursday Night and Friday
By Thursday evening, rain and some snow showers will be ongoing across parts of Labrador while Newfoundland remains largely dry.
A secondary area of low pressure is expected to develop by Friday morning, spreading another round of rain into western and central Newfoundland Thursday night and early Friday. A cold front will then move eastward across the Island Friday morning.
Eastern Newfoundland, including the Avalon Peninsula, will likely see some shower activity Friday morning before the rain winds down around or shortly after lunchtime. Behind the front, skies should gradually improve — but temperatures will begin dropping.
A Much Cooler Weekend
By Friday evening, temperatures will already be noticeably cooler, with readings in the lower teens across eastern Newfoundland, around 10°C on the west coast and near 5°C in parts of Labrador. Saturday morning could start with temperatures near 5°C across western Newfoundland and between roughly 0°C and 4°C in Labrador.
That cooler air will stick around through the weekend. Highs across much of Newfoundland will only reach around 10°C Saturday, with even cooler temperatures possible in western areas and over higher terrain.
There could even be a few wet snowflakes or graupel showers over parts of western Newfoundland and the higher terrain Saturday. In Labrador, weekend temperatures will generally remain in the single digits.
For eastern and southeastern Newfoundland, Sunday currently looks like the better of the two weekend days.
Watching a More Interesting Setup Next Week
The forecast becomes increasingly interesting as we head into early next week. There are already indications that rain could begin mixing with or changing to snow in several areas. The Northern Peninsula currently has rain and snow in the forecast Monday, while central and western Newfoundland could see rain and snow showers by Tuesday.
Labrador may have an even better chance of seeing its first significant snowfall of the season. At this point, Monday or Tuesday appears to offer the better potential for a more substantial snowfall in Labrador, although there is still plenty of time for that forecast to change.
Even Happy Valley-Goose Bay could see a mixture of rain showers and snow flurries early next week.
Tropical Moisture Could Become Part of the Story
Another piece of the forecast is Tropical Storm Isaiah in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before moving toward the northern Gulf Coast later this week. It will not directly affect Newfoundland and Labrador. However, moisture associated with the storm could eventually be drawn northward and become involved with another area of low pressure developing over eastern Canada early next week.
That additional moisture could help fuel a stronger system near Atlantic Canada — potentially one capable of producing significant precipitation and perhaps the first substantial snowfall of the season for parts of Labrador and Newfoundland. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding exactly how that system develops and where the rain-snow line ultimately sets up.
For now, Thursday remains the best day in the immediate forecast, followed by rain Friday, cooler weather for the weekend and an increasingly interesting setup heading into next week. I’ll continue watching it closely as the forecast becomes clearer.
